Labels

Friday, September 14, 2018

Trump’s Income Bump

  Summary
The Obama years demonstrated how sensitive U.S. businesses and workers are to anti-growth policies while the Trump economy is demonstrating their pro-growth liberation.

Trump’s Income Bump

The Census shows that faster growth is helping all income levels.

Remember those warnings of an economic implosion if Donald Trump was elected President? Well, instead, the economy has broken out of the 2% growth doldrums from 2009-2016, and Barack Obama is suddenly elbowing his way back into the public debate to claim credit. Yet the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual report on U.S. income released Wednesday underscores how the Obama policies of redistribution retarded growth for so many years.

Real median household incomes ticked up 1.8% to $61,372 between 2016 and 2017 while the poverty rate dropped 0.4 percentage points to 12.3%, according to the Census Bureau. Income gains were strongest among Hispanic households (3.7%). The poverty rates for blacks and Hispanics fell to 21.2% and 18.3%, respectively, the lowest since at least 1972.

Incomes increased across the distribution range with the share of people earning less than $15,000 declining 0.3 percentage points to 10.7%, the lowest level since 2007. The proportion of households earning more than $150,000 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.7%.

Surging investment earnings have driven up incomes at higher incomes. But at lower levels the income growth appears due to more people working more. While the number of people with employment earnings rose 1.7 million last year, the number working full-time and year-round grew 2.4 million. This lifted nearly one million people out of poverty in 2017.

Mr. Obama last weekend touted the employment growth during his Presidency, but the slower growth over eight years kept marginal workers on the sidelines. As economic growth has picked up over the last 18 months, lower-skilled Americans who were working part-time have moved to full-time employment, which appears to have slightly depressed the growth in median earnings for full-time workers.

The Labor Department’s monthly survey for August showed that 681,000 fewer Americans over the last year were working part-time because of slack business conditions and 266,000 fewer because they couldn’t find full-time jobs. Employers are scrounging for workers with job openings hitting a record high of 6.9 million in July.

Painful as it may be, recall the languid Obama years. Between 2009 and 2014, median household incomes stagnated and poverty increased as the expansion of welfare programs reduced the incentive to work. More than 1.5 million workers were added to the disability rolls. It wasn’t until the end of 2013, more than four years after the recession ended in June 2009, that 99 weeks of unemployment benefits were allowed to expire and the Social Security Administration began to tighten review of disability applications.

Meantime, regulatory policies aimed at punishing businesses loathed by liberals from fast-food franchises to coal mining hampered investment and hiring, particularly among less educated workers.

President Trump’s deregulation has unshackled business animal spirits while tax reform has boosted capital investment, which is starting to show up in greater worker productivity and higher wages. Minorities and less skilled workers left behind by the Obama economy are finally catching up.

The Obama years demonstrated how sensitive U.S. businesses and workers are to anti-growth policies while the Trump economy is demonstrating their pro-growth liberation.

Source:
Lux Libertas
September 12, 2018

Wednesday, September 12, 2018



Absentee Ballots for November Election Now Available

Absentee ballots, which allow any registered Maine voter to cast a ballot without going to a voting place on election day, are now available.

Absentee ballots can be requested until Thursday, November 1 by contacting the municipal clerk in the town or city where you are registered to vote or by using the online form here:

https://www1.maine.gov/cgi-bin/online/AbsenteeBallot/index.pl

 For more information about absentee voting, visit the Maine Secretary of State's Office here.

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/voter-info/absenteeguide.html

Information provided by Senator Andre Cushing, September 12, 2018

You Can’t Bribe Susan Collins


You Can’t Bribe Susan Collins
A crowdfunding campaign threatens the Senator on
Kavanaugh

Lux Libertas
http://luxlibertas.com/you-cant-bribe-susan-collins/
September 11, 2018


After the undignified theatrics at Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings last week, it was hard to imagine that the opposition to this competent Supreme Court nominee could get any more embarrassing. Well, how about a campaign to trade a Senator’s vote for political donations?

A crowdfunding website is trying to strong-arm Senator Susan Collins, the Republican from Maine, by giving more than $1 million to her 2020 opponent—unless she opposes Judge Kavanaugh. Donors are asked to make a financial pledge and then enter their credit-card information. As of Tuesday afternoon, 37,425 people had put down $1,041,878.
The fine print makes clear the quid pro quo: “Your card will only be charged if Senator Susan Collins votes for Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court.” To avoid the money bomb, all Ms. Collins must do is vote “no.”

It isn’t clear this is even legal. We’re all for citizens exercising their free-speech rights, including campaign donations, for or against political candidates. But federal law defines the crime of bribery as “corruptly” offering “anything of value” to a public official, including a Member of Congress, with the intent to “influence any official act.” The crowdfunders in this case are offering something of value—withholding funds from her opponent—in return for a Supreme Court confirmation vote.

“I have had three attorneys tell me that they think it is a clear violation of the federal law on bribery,” Ms. Collins says. “Actually, two told me that; one told me it’s extortion.”

She adds that her office hasn’t “made any kind of decision” about whether to refer the matter to prosecutors. But her astonishment at the strategy is clear: “It’s offensive. It’s of questionable legality. And it is extraordinary to me that people would want to participate in trying to essentially buy a Senator’s vote.”

Another pressure tactic, one Ms. Collins says she finds “incredibly offensive,” is “the out-of-state voicemails being left on the answering machines of my state offices.” Many of the messages are profane. “In one case—and we are going to turn this over to the police, but unfortunately, of course, the person didn’t leave a name or number—but they actually threatened to rape one of my young female staffers.”

The Senator’s office also has been receiving coat hangers in the mail, a grisly attempt to insinuate that a Justice Kavanaugh would restrict abortion rights. About 3,000 have arrived so far. “I am pleased to say,” Ms. Collins says with a small chuckle, “we had a group that has a thrift shop that helps low-income women ask us for 300 of the hangers. So at least 300 of them have gone to a very good cause.”

Even diehard opponents of Judge Kavanaugh must recognize the unseemly nature of this bid to intimidate a U.S. Senator. Not that it will work. “I’m going to do what I think is right,” Ms. Collins says. “I am going to cast my vote—as I have done on all of the other Supreme Court nominees that I’ve been called upon to consider—based on his qualifications, his character and integrity, judicial temperament, his record, and his respect for the rule of law and fidelity to the Constitution.”

Some two-thirds of Maine voters supported Ms. Collins in her last election, so opponents will have their work cut out in 2020. Meanwhile, the next time progressives complain about the menace of money in politics, remind them of their failure to object to the crowdfunding bribe offered to Senator Collins.

Real Clear Politics daily collection of opinions/reviews of political/economic issues

Real Clear Politics daily collection of opinions/reviews of political/economic issues


All sides of the political spectrum are represented. The list below identifies opinions
published today. 9/12/2018


RealClear Politics

Wednesday, September 12



Obama Reminds Us Why Donald Trump Is President - David Harsanyi, The Federalist
What a Baby: Trump Places Image Over Principle - David Ignatius, Washington Post
Decoding the Drips of Leak Upon Anti-Trump Lea -  Lee Smith, RealClearInvestigations
'Anonymous' Is Hiding in Plain Sight - Thomas Friedman, New York Times
Why Is College So Expensive? - Amanda Ripley, The Atlantic
Time for Colleges to Get Some Skin in the Game - Piereson & Riley, City Journal
The Most Contrarian College in America - Frank Bruni, New York Times
Serena Williams Is a Sore Loser, Not a Victim - Freddy Gray, The Spectator
A Hard Look at America After 9/11 - Jane Harman, The Hill
How I Teach My Son About 9/11 as a New Yorker - David Marcus, The Federalist


To subscribe to RealClearPolitics, go to:


At that page you will find the  subscription request.
Complete the form and submit to subscribe to the list.


Name:
Email Address
First Name
Last Name
Receive emails from RealClearPolitics about Products
Yes    No
Receive email from RealClearPolitics partners
Yes    No
Location
Accept Terms of Service and Privacy
Yes   No
Subscribe to list


Let me know if you have problems subscribing.









The New Tax Law Should Spur Long-Term Growth, Too

The New Tax Law Should Spur Long-Term Growth, Too

Many forecasting models lowball the effect by ignoring the structural changes to the economy.

By David Malpass
Wall Street Journal
January 28, 2018

The U.S. economy accelerated in 2017 as tax reform became a realistic possibility. Growth topped 3% in the second and third quarters. While the first estimate of the fourth quarter, released Friday at 2.6%, was a bit slower, it was paced by an 11.4% increase in equipment investment. That type of investment raises productivity, adds to the skills of the labor force, and pays dividends for years.

The strong 2017 increase in jobs and equity prices confirms a substantial improvement in economic prospects that went well beyond the slow year-ago forecasts of those who argued that the incoming president’s economic program wouldn’t work.

A key issue for markets and policy makers is whether the economic improvement is temporary, giving way to slower growth later, or longer-lasting, opening a structural reform path to higher sustained growth. The International Monetary Fund’s just-released outlook takes the former stance, increasing its near-term U.S. growth forecast substantially—to 2.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019 from its pre-tax-reform forecasts of 2.3% and 1.9%. But the IMF argues that “the tax policy package is projected to lower growth for a few years from 2022 onwards.”

Many forecasting models lowball the longer-term growth effect of the new tax law by focusing on its fiscal mechanisms rather than the structural change. The law has a provision allowing expensing of new investments for five years, and many of the tax benefits for individuals will expire after 2025 unless Congress extends them. As per the IMF model—which expects U.S. growth to fade to only 1.5% a year in the longer term, even lower than during the Obama years—the dominant features of the tax bill are captured in the “fiscal stimulus” in the early years and fiscal tightening in the middle of the next decade.

This forecasting approach misses the purpose of tax reform, which is to allow the economy to change so that it grows faster. The real-world effect of tax cuts comes from businesses, large and small, responding to improvements in growth policies, including lasting regulatory, tax and energy reforms. Many of the provisions in the law will increase U.S. business investment, allow a better allocation of capital, and encourage small-business dynamism. This combination of structural improvements will draw more workers into the labor force, improving their skills. This will allow the economy to rebuild from the low average growth rate that preceded the Trump administration, rather than reducing long-term growth as many of the inbred government-centric models of growth envision.

By lowering the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, the new law aligns incentives so that managers focus more on creating profitable businesses and building their labor pool rather than offshoring jobs and devising expensive financial structures to minimize taxes.

Importantly, the new law will benefit many unincorporated businesses. They are often the nimblest and best able to hire and train workers new to their industry—precisely the workers the president wants to draw into the labor force. The new law provides small pass-through businesses with a 20% tax deduction, helping them compete with big companies and government-dominated industries. As their workers gain skills, their productivity increases rapidly, allowing more growth than assumed in the models.

Many aspects of the growth outlook can’t be reduced to models. A key growth provision in the bill limits the federal deduction for state and local taxes to $10,000 a year. Without that limit, previous law provided a massive federal subsidy to high-tax states, especially wealthy households in those states.

Standard macroeconomic models treat a reduction in a tax deduction as a drag on growth because it reduces the fiscal “stimulus.” But the bigger impact of the so-called SALT limitation will be structural and favorable for growth. Reducing the giant transfer of resources from small-government states to big-government states will allow capital and investment to flow more freely to profitable, job-creating investments around the country. The poorer counties in high-tax states have huge growth potential if their state and local governments were to restrain their spending and taxes in response to the tax-law change. Similarly, low-tax states can grow even faster as the tax headwind from subsidized high-tax states diminishes.

The most important variables in the outlook are whether business and workers respond favorably—all signs are that they will—and whether the economic acceleration and the success with the new tax law will lead to a series of growth-oriented reforms in the U.S. and abroad. A highly favorable outcome would be for other countries to compete with the U.S. on growth-oriented structural reforms. If so, average long-term growth can be substantially faster than the consensus models expect.

Mr. Malpass is Treasury undersecretary for international affairs.

The Untouchables vs. The Deplorables

Julie Kelly
https://amgreatness.com/2018/08/18/the-untouchables
August 18, 2018

One reason Donald Trump won the presidency is that Americans are tired of being ignored by the ruling political class.

A poll taken several months before the election revealed that neglected voters overwhelmingly favored Donald Trump above any other candidate: “Voters who agreed with the statement ‘people like me don’t have any say about what the government does’ were 86.5 percent more likely to prefer Trump. This feeling of powerlessness and voicelessness was a much better predictor of Trump support than age, race, college attainment, [or] income,” wrote Derek Thompson at The Atlantic.

This is the Trump appeal that the ruling political class refused—and still refuses—to acknowledge. It is why Republicans were willing to overlook his personal peccadillos, and why voters in 206 counties who twice chose Barack Obama helped elect Donald Trump. It is why rural moms, union toughs, small business owners, and soybean farmers fill steamy Midwestern assembly halls during summer’s peak to rally around a thrice-married, brash, egotistical Manhattan billionaire who is the working class’s most unlikely champion. It is why Republican candidates across the country are bragging about their Trump-BFF status in tight primary races.

A Battering Ram Against Convention

Trump violates every sycophantic, mannerly rule that politicians and their handlers are taught to follow. The name-calling, the gloating, the fight-picking are precisely what any political consultant would advise their client not to do. “Act presidential,” the memo would say. Let others do your dirty work. Stay above the fray, don’t get in the mud. Keep on message. Politics is a game of addition, not subtraction. Yada yada yada. (Let’s add “Political Consulting Experts” to the long list of professional know-it-alls who’ve been wholly discredited in the Trump era.)

But the jig is up. Trump is a one-man battering ram against a powerful political apparatus—The Untouchables—that ruefully stacks the deck against the very people it purports to understand and protect.

Hillary Clinton embodied all that was wrong with the ruling political class: She was insular, smug, and unapologetic. She snubbed three of the country’s most populous states (and never bothered to campaign in one of them) until the waning days of the campaign.

And she called millions of Trump supporters “deplorables.”

Nearly two years later, the war between The Untouchables and The Deplorables rages on. Last week featured several more clashes, proving again that the president’s opposition remains stunningly and stubbornly tone-deaf. (As Peggy Noonan wrote last year, Trump has been lucky in his enemies.) The Untouchables brandished their revoked security clearances and their opinion pages and their GoFundMe campaigns as the latest weapons against a president they intend to destroy.

But instead of taking it on the chin, these martyrs of #TheResistance embrace their victimhood. They caterwaul about imaginary constitutional rights violations not because it’s legitimate but because their self-enacted 28th Amendment right—the Right to Infinite and Unchecked Power—is being trampled.

Strzok and Brennan’s Shameless Appeal

The week began with the overdue firing of Peter Strzok, a conniving, cheating and possibly criminal FBI agent. Strzok’s fingerprints are on every investigation from Hillary Clinton’s email server to the phony Trump-Russia campaign connection to Special Counsel Robert Mueller (who dismissed Strzok last year after hundreds of anti-Trump texts between him and his alleged lover, an FBI lawyer, were released.)

There are plenty of reasons why Strzok deserved the axe. But the media quickly took to his defense, dishonestly claiming Strzok was fired because of his biased texts. The Washington Post quoted Strzok’s lawyer, who claimed his client’s firing should “be deeply troubling to all Americans.”

Many reporters pinned the blame on Trump; the New York Times insisted Strzok “became emblematic of Trump’s unfounded assertions that a so-called deep state of bureaucrats opposed to him was undermining his presidency.”

But instead of being ashamed, Strzok got out his tin cup. He set up a GoFundMe page to beg people for money to help defray his legal bills and lost income. Strzok’s plea is rooted in his claim that he has dedicated his life to keeping America safe; Strzok even had the audacity to call himself a “proud husband and father” though he had a workplace dalliance with an FBI colleague. But the message from Strzok was clear: You owe me. (In the past four days, the account has raised $431,000. Cha-ching!)

That sense of entitlement also seems to make The Untouchables believe that any privilege they once enjoyed as public servants should continue forever, including access to the most sensitive information the federal government possesses.

So The Untouchables are now outraged that Trump yanked the security clearance of former CIA Director John Brennan, a central figure in commandeering the phony Trump-Russia collusion plotline right before the presidential election. During a press briefing last Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders outlined Brennan’s history of misconduct and said he has “leveraged his status . . . to make a series of unfounded and outrageous allegations, wild outbursts on the Internet and television about this administration.”

Brennan, now an NBC News analyst, is a malicious foe of the president; he’s made threats to Trump on social media and accused him of being a traitor. In a New York Times op-ed last week, Brennan said Trump’s denials about collusion are “hogwash” and insisted that collusion-related crimes have been committed by Trump’s team. (This earned Brennan a harsh rebuke by Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Richard Burr.)

There is no reason for Brennan, a private citizen and paid media pundit, to have access to government secrets. But Trump foes quickly elevated Brennan to Rosa Parks-like status, wailing about how Trump stripped Brennan of his First Amendment rights: The silenced hero later appeared on MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow’s show for 25 minutes to air his grievances and ridicule the president.

In a hyperbolic opening segment on August 15, NBC News anchor Lester Holt accused Trump of “using his power to take revenge on a critical voice.” Brennan compared Trump to “despots and tyrants.” A dozen former top intelligence officials rallied around Brennan—including the folks who ignored all the clues before 9/11 and one who pleaded guilty for sharing classified information with his lover—claimed Brennan was just “speak[ing] out sharply regarding what he sees as threats to our national security.” And getting paid for it.

Our Media “Heroes” (And Other Fake News)

But Trump is not backing down. Sanders confirmed he is considering revoking security clearances for a number of former law enforcement and intelligence officials, many tied to perpetrating the election collusion hoax. Get ready for more victim/martyr/heroes of The Untouchables to come.

And of course it would not be a normal week in the Trump era if the American news media didn’t pull some stunt to attract attention for themselves and blast the president.

More than 300 newspapers published editorials last week to defend themselves against Trump’s “attacks” on the media. Rather than cover legitimate news or work to restore their sinking reputations, the press instead continues to keep the focus on themselves. After years of fluffing for Barack Obama, The Untouchables in the media now expect us to defend their biased coverage; relentless attacks on the president, his administration, his family, his voters, and basically every Republican except Senators John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona; and cover-up of the unraveling Spygate scandal. The Los Angeles Times admitted that “Journalism is not an easy institution to rally around. But if there were ever a time for citizens to defend the press, this is it.” (Reply: No.)

The media can’t answer legitimate criticism because they have long been in The Untouchables group, self-proclaimed warriors of the truth regardless of how untruthful they actually are. In their desire for self-efficacy, reporters have compared themselves to first responders and combat veterans. The real-life woes of The Deplorables are ignored—even mocked—as journalists preen about their moral superiority. But Trump has exposed their duplicity and their arrogance; it’s making them nuts. They now lash out at any imaginary threat against themselves while fueling violence and political chaos among Americans on a daily basis.

Trump’s one-man crusade against The Untouchables is working. Regular Americans see this crowd’s shameless sense of entitlement and their resentment for anyone outside their circle. Their hatred for Trump is just an extension of their hatred for those he is defending. That’s why Trump will continue to fill up school auditoriums in the Midwest while The Untouchables will continue to fill up their columns with whining.

Republican v.Democrat Platform 2018