Trump’s Republican Populism

Why he succeeds where Govs. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura failed.

By William McGurn
Wall Street Journal
November 6, 2018

Long before he was president, Donald Trump was a celebrity, a walking, talking jumble of political incorrectness who rode his billionaire populism all the way to the Oval Office.

But a funny thing happened to Mr. Trump once he became president. At some point he understood that if he was not to fizzle out like so many populists before him—think pro wrestler turned governor Jesse “The Body” Ventura in Minnesota or Arnold “The Terminator” Schwarzenegger in California—he would need to tether his populism to the Republican policy agenda. And, mostly, he has.

This record is easily lost amid the Trumpian tweets and excesses. Even so, it remains a record most Republicans cheer: a major overhaul of the tax system that has brought the economy roaring back to life, two stellar jurists seated on the Supreme Court and a record number of nominees confirmed for the district and appellate courts, a thoroughgoing regulatory overhaul courtesy of what had been the largely unused Congressional Review Act, not to mention a long overdue defense buildup.

These are precisely the kind of victories that losing even one chamber of Congress would render next to impossible going forward. Judging from the president’s many rallies—and his new bromances with old opponents—he knows it too.

Take Ted Cruz, a rival in the 2016 GOP presidential primaries. During the primaries Mr. Trump routinely referred to the Texas senator as “Lyin’ Ted.” At one point, he embraced a National Enquirer report claiming Mr. Cruz’s father had associated with JFK assassin Lee Harvey Oswald not long before the shooting.

As president, Mr. Trump now appreciates that in a tight Senate he can’t afford to have a Democrat take Mr. Cruz’s seat. That’s why the president was in Houston last week holding a monster rally for the senator he now calls “Beautiful Ted.”

It could have turned out much differently. After the Senate failed to repeal ObamaCare in 2017, finger pointing was the order of the day, with Mr. Trump complaining about Mitch McConnell’s Senate leadership. No one on the GOP side was getting anywhere—until the Senate changed the focus by pushing through something that did pass, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Likewise in the House. Mr. Trump can boast about “so much winning.” But without the considerable legislation Speaker Paul Ryan and his Republican caucus have sent to the president’s desk for his signature, the winning words would remain hollow.

Give the president his due as well. Yes, he’s stocked his White House with gadflies (Steve Bannon), troublemakers (Omarosa Manigault), loudmouths (Anthony Scaramucci), and appointees with Pat Buchanan-like hostility to free trade (Robert Lighthizer). But he’s also filled key Trump administration posts with strong conservatives who would have been equally at home in a Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio White House (Larry Kudlow at the National Economic Council, Don McGahn as White House counsel, John Bolton at the National Security Council).

Mr. Trump has likewise known where to look for advice. In 2016, Sen. Cruz challenged him on Supreme Court picks, saying Mr. Trump was likely to chose a nominee like his sister Maryanne Trump Barry, a Clinton appointee to the Third U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals whom Mr. Cruz described as a “hard-core pro-abortion liberal judge.” Mr. Trump responded by having Leonard Leo of the Federalist Society come up with what conservatives regard as a dream team list of jurists from which Mr. Trump said he would choose. Again, he has.

In other words, for all the talk about how Mr. Trump’s populism is changing the Republican Party, his most significant achievements have come when he’s hitched his populism to traditional conservative priorities and then worked with his fellow Republicans to make good on his promises.

That’s why the stakes are high Tuesday. Losing the House may not be the end of the world for the president—Mr. Trump may even regard a Speaker Nancy Pelosi as a gift in the run-up to 2020—but it would almost surely mean an end to the big legislative achievements like those we’ve seen these past two years.

Losing the Senate would be even worse. Democrats are still smarting from Mr. McConnell’s decision two years ago not to hold hearings for Merrick Garland, Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, during a presidential election year. If Democrats get control, they will use it to thwart many of Mr. Trump’s nominees, whether for the federal courts or his own cabinet. And if a Democratic House manages to impeach the president, Mr. Trump will want as large a GOP majority as possible in the Senate.

For all the bumps and bruises, the Trump-Republican collaboration has yielded large achievements for the American people. But if these midterms take their normal historical course, the GOP will lose one or both chambers of Congress. And that in turn would test how effective Mr. Trump’s populism can be without his fellow Republicans on Capitol Hill driving the agenda.