Voters Don’t Like Trump, Just His Results

An opportunity for the President’s party to buck midterm history.


By James Freeman
http://www.ruthfullyyours.com/2018/10/22/voters-dont-like-trump-just-his-results-an-opportunity-for-the-presidents-party-to-buck-midterm-history-by-james-freeman/
October 22, 2018

There’s a school of thought that the economy is only a political issue when it’s bad and that prosperous times allow people the luxury of prioritizing other issues. That’s not the message in the latest poll from The Wall Street Journal and NBC News.

The consensus among professional economists is that this Friday’s third-quarter GDP report from the Commerce Department will show another strong period of growth in the U.S. economy after a blowout performance in the second quarter. Voters don’t seem to be taking it for granted. WSJ/NBC survey respondents call “the economy and jobs” the most important factor in deciding their votes in this year’s elections for the U.S. Congress. Since June, this issue has overtaken health care as the top concern for participants in the poll.

Could this mean that despite all the recent positive economic data, survey respondents actually think the economy is lousy? Not likely, because voters are giving high marks to the party that is currently in charge of the nation’s economic policy. When it comes to dealing with the economy, survey participants say that Republicans “would do a better job” than Democrats by a 15-point margin. This appears to be the largest Republican advantage recorded by this survey, which has been asking the question since at least 1991.

This doesn’t mean that voters particularly like the nation’s chief economic policy maker. In fact 68% of respondents say they don’t like President Trump. But Mr. Trump appears to be setting a modern record in the share of the electorate saying that they don’t like the President personally, but approve of most of his policies. This category of voters currently stands at 20% of the electorate. For most recent Presidents such readings were generally in the low-to-mid single digits, though Bill Clinton’s share did climb into the teens.

The Journal reports that survey results show overall approval of President Trump is increasing, and so is enthusiasm among those in his party:

Hand in hand with Republicans’ increased election interest is a rise in Mr. Trump’s job-approval rating to 47%, the highest mark of his time in office, with 49% disapproving of his performance. That is an improvement from September, when 44% approved and 52% disapproved of his performance.
If a significant number of Americans are giving the President what might be called their grudging approval, you can’t say he’s not working hard to earn it. This is not a reference to his tweeting but to the results of two of his signature initiatives on economic policy.

This column has written at length about the encouraging spike in business investment following the December enactment of his tax cuts. Recently the Trump administration provided a progress report on the other pillar of his pro-growth agenda—reducing federal regulation. This is affectionately known as swamp-draining to those outside the D.C. metropolitan area.

It seems Team Trump is exceeding its own expectations. At one point the administration was aiming to cut about $10 billion in regulatory costs during the 2018 fiscal year, which ended on September 30. Now the White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs reports the elimination of $23 billion in “overall regulatory costs across the government” during the fiscal year just ended.

During his 2016 campaign, Mr. Trump appears to have under-promised when he said he would cut two federal rules for every new one promulgated on his watch. Or maybe he is just over-delivering now. Either way, the regulatory affairs office reports on the 2018 results:

Agencies issued 176 deregulatory actions and 14 significant regulatory actions. 57 deregulatory actions were significant. Comparing significant deregulatory to significant regulatory actions yields a ratio of 4 to 1.
And the White House says there’s more good news to come:

In fiscal year 2019, agencies anticipate saving a total of $18 billion in regulatory costs from final rulemakings. This does not include one of the most significant deregulatory rules anticipated in fiscal year 2019, “The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks,” which the proposed rule estimates will save between $120 and $340 billion in regulatory costs.
Voters have obviously noticed what an unleashed U.S. economy looks like, which suggests that Republicans have a chance to avoid the traditional midterm drubbing typically suffered by the party of the President.

The one big remaining issue where the Democrats have a large advantage in the WSJ/NBC survey, as in so many other surveys, is health care. If Republicans follow Mr. Trump’s lead and contrast Bernie Sanders-style medicine—supported by most House Democrats—with GOP plans to expand consumer choice, Republicans can buck midterm history.